Yes, another political post.\u00a0 You can skip and my feelings won’t be hurt.<\/p>\n
Reviewing January 6:\u00a0\u00a0 Consider an imaginary President Good.\u00a0 What would a non-traitorous President and staff have done in face of a threatened attack on the Capitol?\u00a0\u00a0 A non-complicit Secretary of Defense, a non-complicit Chief of Staff of the Army?\u00a0 How have such threats been handled in the past?\u00a0\u00a0 Here’s how.\u00a0\u00a0 Let’s suppose President Good lost an election in a three-candidate race and conceded.\u00a0 But the *other* loser (Candidate Traitor) hates the winner and wants to invalidate the election, and has a strong following of the same kind of people as DJT.\u00a0\u00a0 A threat of violent attack on the building and Congress would’ve been noticed early on via surveillance of internet traffic, hotel reservations, travel reservations, and unregulated chat by amateurs\u00a0 months before Jan 6.\u00a0 President Good would be informed, and approve preparing ahead of an attack.\u00a0\u00a0 He or she\u00a0 would authorize the Secretary of Defense to contact appropriate units and have them make the necessary plans.\u00a0 They would discuss priorities.\u00a0 SecDef would contact the DC National Guard to find out their current capability and tell their commander to prepare and overtime ensure that there was coordination between planning units.\u00a0 SecDef would also contact the Army (Army Chief of Staff or Ass’t COS)\u00a0 with current info, and state possible need for larger force, one of the rapid response forces that, in fact, we have.\u00a0\u00a0 In my day, that would’ve been the 82nd Airborne.\u00a0\u00a0 For more National Guard support than the DC NG has,\u00a0 he’d ask the Governor of Maryland, about the Maryland National Guard’s current status and ability to help if necessary.\u00a0 Within a few days, a plan would start to form, and planning would continue over several months, as more info was found an evaluated.\u00a0\u00a0 How big the threat was, what known troublemakers were involved, etc.\u00a0\u00a0 They would inform Congressional leaders of both parties.\u00a0 They would require from those leaders lists of persons who might need extra assistance in case of an assault\u00a0 break-in and ensure that each such person had adequate assigned help.<\/p>\n
2. Defending a fixed location, like the Capitol and Senate and House Office Buildings, plus the lower levels of the Library of Congress (connected to the Capitol underground)\u00a0 requires having your defense in place before the attack.\u00a0 Thus the necessary personnel and supplies would be in place before the day of the expected attack, in sufficient numbers to secure the tunnels, basements, corridors, windows, and doors, as well as access from the roof.\u00a0 This would undoubtedly require many more troops than the DC NG could provide.\u00a0 Air cover would include drones,\u00a0 armed helicopters, and an AWACS plane to coordinate communications, command, and control.\u00a0 In previous potentially violent mass demonstrations (during ‘Nam, for instance) armed troops were openly displayed on the steps of the Capitol; this has a deterrent effect for true civilians; less so for those with military training.\u00a0 There are knotty and difficult issues figuring out who can do what, legally, in the defense, but in war, including civil war, the final imperative is complete the mission–get the job done.\u00a0\u00a0 Protect the buildings in order to protect Congress which is supposed to do a certain job on that day. \u00a0 The exact planning for an effective defense of the Capitol and its associated Congressional office buildings would rest on details of architecture I don’t know (how big are the tunnels, how are they ventilated, what vulnerabilities exist for chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons use…as just one example) and planning would involve responses to various scenarios, worked out in advance, with branches for each possibility.\u00a0 So maybe there’d be that familiar visual display of troops lining the Capitol steps and maybe not–maybe they’d have superior barriers in place, maybe they’d be concealed.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 President Good might have declared martial law–or not.\u00a0 The details matter.<\/p>\n
3. When Candidate Traitor and his various supporters made their speeches,\u00a0 all the whipping the crowd into a frenzy and then aiming them at the Capitol stuff, and the crowd went on the move, President Good would get input from his advisors and his SecDef: who, by the way, would be in the situation room with him, not over in the Pentagon across the river. Communications with the military would be excellent because it was set up to be, and likewise other communications.\u00a0 President Good would have met or talked to every senior commander in the bunch and know exactly what the plans were.\u00a0 Being prepared, and in place, in sufficient numbers with sufficient materiel, with sufficient intel because of the air superiority and the embedded observers, the attackers would’ve had a much harder time.<\/p>\n
Instead of a thin line of Capitol Police behind a weak barrier of movable panels, they’d face multiple lines of defense and a clearly superior force in full battle gear with live weapons.\u00a0 And then discover that they were caught in the rear by more trained and well-equipped troops.\u00a0 The trained troops among the mob would certainly make a stab at driving them back, perhaps sure they wouldn’t actually shoot white men or women, but the cannon fodder of eager untrained screamers and posturers wouldn’t stick long.\u00a0 The untrained can certainly be dangerous, and beat someone to death with sticks and clubs, knock them back with tasers, but on the whole they don’t stand up to live fire when they see someone beside them fall.\u00a0 With sufficient troops and the right rules of engagement, the attack would fail (assuming exactly the same conditions otherwise as on Jan 6.\u00a0 Results change with the weapons available, but with small arms, the damage ratio would shift against the attackers.)<\/p>\n
Most of the attackers would be captured, rapidly identified, and processed into detention awaiting trial, their danger to the public if left loose made evident by their attack on the Capitol.\u00a0 Those who escaped would find it impossible to escape the city:\u00a0 traffic blocked, bridges guarded, all public transportation (subway, bus, train, air) halted and everyone leaving the city examined.\u00a0 AWACs would probably have detected communication to the attackers’ remote command center, located it, and have sent troops to capture it.\u00a0 Meanwhile, those GOP politicians in Congress who were enabling the attackers–would be found out faster, and be removed from the others and confined under guard–without their cellphones, their tablets, etc.\u00a0 Their computers would be confiscated *by the government forces* for examination later.\u00a0 When danger was past and the mopping up began, those in custody as traitors would be moved to more permanent confinement, under arrest while evidence was gathered from their electronics, from surveillance footage, from those trying to talk their way out of trouble.<\/p>\n
Now for recent history<\/strong>: Here’s what we know about what happened on the run-up to January 6 with a traitor in the White House, both president and candidate for election.\u00a0 As president he had power to appoint and remove federal employees; he had power to control how government buildings communicated (for instance, by ordering that only FoxNews channel could be used in those buildings) and he had military power as Commander in Chief.\u00a0 His mishandling of the response to the COVID pandemic, very evident by early June with rapidly rising death tolls, caused an obvious sag in his popularity–prior to that he had been certain he’d win re-election and so had his party.\u00a0\u00a0 In July, Trump attacked a BLM protest near the White House with a huge violent response that included invading church property across the street from Lafayette Park and throwing the clergy out of their own church.\u00a0 I personally believe the violence of hte response was intended to provoke (as it did) loud protests, including from DC’s mayor, about the abuse, setting up a “reason” for his directive to his new “acting” Secretary of Defense that he “didn’t want to see armed troops in the streets.”\u00a0 July 1 was the first obvious precursor event, and it’s the right time frame for planning an attack from inside an Administration.\u00a0\u00a0 It also created a breach with existing Secretary of Defense, the existing Secretary of the Army, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, because Trump had wanted armed military personnel to take part in his attack on BLM protesters, and they had not agreed.<\/p>\n Trump made frequent charges that the election was rigged (before it occurred), that mail in ballots were rigged, and did his best to discredit the election process before the election, giving himself “reasons” not to concede if he lost.\u00a0 He said that “millions” of illegal votes had been made in previous elections (a flagrant lie) and he thought more would occur, that if he lost, it would be through fraud.\u00a0 In the meantime he prepared to remove and replace certain vital positions within DOD.\u00a0\u00a0 He began to indicate to his followers that–if defeated–he would NOT concede and would NOT ensure a peaceful transition of power.\u00a0 His public statements–on Twitter, to the press, on FoxNews–emphasized a conspiracy of “antifa” against him, the corruption of Democrats at all levels, and the need for violence to protect himself and the country.\u00a0 It was clear to the general public (his supporters and those who weren’t) that he was working up to an attempt to prevent or invalidate the election. When he lost, he made no attempt to cooperate in the transition period, instructing government entities NOT to cooperate with the incoming Administration\u00a0 and quickly moving to change what he felt would assist him in overturning the election.\u00a0 He or his backers had already identified every delaying point, every intervention that might change the election, but attempt after attempt failed, including trying to bully the state officials to “find 11,000 votes” or decertify Electoral College votes that were putting\u00a0 Biden over the margin of victory.<\/p>\n This included four particular personnel decisions that made changes in both the civilian leadership in DOD and the military chain of command; these reassignments were made shortly after the results of the election were first certified, and reported on November 11.\u00a0\u00a0 1) Firing Secretary of Defense Esper and appointing an Acting SecDef, Christopher Miller, without seeking Senate confirmation. Embedding to former anti-terrorism\/security appointees,\u00a0 Kashvak Patel and Ezra Cohen-Watnick, to work with Miller (or, some said, ensure he stayed in the lane Trump assigned.)\u00a0 Those three became the first block below the president in preventing effective defense of the Capitol and Congress.\u00a0 2) Promoting General Charles Flynn (younger brother of Michael Flynn, discredited former general but still active Trump advisor)\u00a0 to four star rank, also in November. \u00a0 Senate confirmation did not come at once, but through the rest of November and early December challenge after challenge to the election’s validity failed.\u00a0\u00a0 General Charles Flynn’s promotion to 4-star on December 31, and his appointment as assistant Chief of Staff of the Army, in charge of “readiness” put him in a position to block communication from civilians and national guard commanders: his assignment was the normal access point for national guard and regular military response.\u00a0\u00a0 These changes were initially understood as involving Trump’s desire to initiate active military response to Iran, as he withdrew troops (as he said he wanted to do) from Afghanistan and Syria, but in fact those assignments were crucial to the early success of the attack on the Capitol.\u00a0 That meant that Congress’s certification of the Electoral College results on January 6 was critical.<\/p>\n From at least the election on, it was clear that Trump enthusiasts were being encouraged to consider violent action if the election went through, and the Electoral College response was a focus for their fears and anger.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 By the second week in December, they were talking online about going to Washington to “convince” Congress to overturn the Electoral College and give the election to Trump, and some Republican politicians were encouraging this.\u00a0\u00a0 Although some of the planning for attack was carried out in the dark web areas, enough leaked out that people with no access there (like me) were well aware by Dec 15 that something violent was in the planning.\u00a0 The usual suspects were talking about bringing their guns and killing certain Democrat politicians.\u00a0 The Congressional certification of the Electoral College votes was the obvious target date–both houses would be there.\u00a0\u00a0 On December 31, the Senate approved Flynn’s promotion, and the fix was in, the attack “locked and loaded.”\u00a0 Transport had been booked, hotel rooms had been booked, the assault groups (trained militias, military, merc) had been given all the help they needed, and were able to bring in equipment and munitions in privately owned or rented vehicles.\u00a0 Trump’s loudest political supporters (including Senators Hawley and Cruz) spend the preceding weekend encouraging those planning to go to D.C. or already there…lots of talk about the blood that must be shed to defend freedom.\u00a0\u00a0 Michael Flynn, Gen. C. Flynn’s older brother, was calling for Trump to declare martial law to prevent certification of the election and force Trump’s return to office.<\/p>\n On January 4, Monday, Chris Miller and his watchdogs met with Trump at the White House.\u00a0 Trump had already told Miller he didn’t want to see “troops in the streets” but expected it would take ten thousand troops to stop what was coming.\u00a0\u00a0 Miller composed and sent to the District of Columbia National Guard commander, and to the DC Police, a memo outlining the rules pertaining to the coming demonstration.\u00a0 These included that no response could occur without his personal permission, and any forces sent to the site could not be armed, could not wear riot gear (e.g. had to be unprotected, without helmets, body protectors, etc.), could not coordinate with another other groups (either to share information or work together), could not call on any air support, should not engage physically with any in the mob unless physically threatened.\u00a0\u00a0 They would be outnumbered (DC National Guard has about 2700 soldiers and airmen–so fewer than that ground troops), under-equipped to defend themselves, let alone Congress, and without adequate intel from air surveillance.<\/p>\n In this climate, and inspired by Trump’s unequivocal support for those who would attack the Capitol–as given in his speech the morning of January 6, the mob moved to the Capitol itself, where some portable pipe barriers had been erected by the Capitol Police in the belief that the crowd would respect them.\u00a0\u00a0 Crowd breached the barriers and began the assault on the Capitol buildings.\u00a0 Some assigned units (not yet IDed publicly) used grapples and lines to zoom up to roof level and thus invade from above.\u00a0 Some amateurs tried to climb up (some with help) and some couldn’t make it and fell off.\u00a0 Others attempted to break windows to enter, using hammers, crowbars, poles and other improvised weapons.\u00a0 A determined, organized group went up the Capitol steps and breached the front doors, holding them open while more and more entered.\u00a0 The trained groups knew where things were (House and Senate chambers, important offices) and did their best to break into those while Capitol Police tried to evacuate members of Congress to a room they could secure.\u00a0 The threat to human life was real, as the videos shown during the impeachment trial show.\u00a0 Unfortunately, due to COVID rules, House members were not all seated on the House floor, but some dispersed at distances in the gallery normally used by visitors; the gallery is divided by handrails that mean people seated in each section can only exit but climbing back up to an open passageway near the gallery doors to a wide hall…and soon enough attackers were in that hall, trying to get into the gallery.\u00a0 Congress members there were exposed to view (and to gunfire had the attackers chosen) and trapped in place.\u00a0 Many were also posting selfies–both still and video images–of what they were doing and people around them were doing, on Twitter and Facebook.<\/p>\n Calls for help went out from the Capitol Police, the mayor,\u00a0 and individuals inside the Capitol, who were told the National Guard had no authorization to act.\u00a0 The Governor of Maryland (not sure how he was called, maybe Maryland members of Congress) called the Pentagon repeatedly to ask authorization to send the Maryland NG to help.\u00a0 He was told the correct person (Army Assistant Chief of Staff…e.g. General Charles Flynn) was “not available.”\u00a0 D.C. Mayor and police couldn’t get through.\u00a0\u00a0 You will notice, in the reference below from Vanity Fair<\/em>.com\/news that the statements by Chris Miller on what it was like on the day do not match later comments in other sources or his testimony to Congress (which he changed his story after being challenged by AOC.\u00a0\u00a0 What did he know and when did he know it, and when did he receive calls from which persons and when did he authorize the National Guard to move into action?\u00a0 What was the purpose of another hour+ delay in deployment when he could have instructed the National Guard to have a written plan *ready*?\u00a0\u00a0 In the Vanity Fair article he’s quoted as saying: “Then the damn TV pops up and everybody converges on my office: [Joint Chiefs of Staff] chairman [Mark Milley<\/strong>], Secretary of the Army [Ryan] McCarthy,<\/strong> the crew just converges.\u201d And as intelligence started cycling in, things went from watch and see to \u201ca current op.\u201d Miller recalled, \u201cWe had already decided we\u2019re going to need to activate the National Guard, and that\u2019s where the fog and friction comes in.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0 No times.\u00a0 He doesn’t say WHEN “the damn TV pops up” or what it’s showing (what channels they saw, when Trump had ordered that no one could watch anything but FoxNews: what was on FoxNews at the time the TV “pops up?”), when and how long the “crew” that converged on his office were there before any decision was made,\u00a0 at what time the decision “we’re doing to need to activate the National Guard”\u00a0 was made, or when the calls to the National Guard were made.\u00a0 Congress pulled *some* of that out of him, but not all…and every bit of that should be documented.\u00a0 He also claims in the article that he was in constant touch with the president’s chief of staff, but another officer (unnamed) says they couldn’t reach the White House.\u00a0\u00a0 Miller is an unreliable witness.\u00a0 IMO, all the relevant personnel should be questioned by the FBI under oath because I suspect NONE of them are reliable witnesses but looking at all their versions might get closer to reality.<\/p>\n Trump is still claiming the election was stolen and he wants his job back.\u00a0 His followers still believe his lies.\u00a0 The mass of attackers were allowed to leave the White House environs without being identified, photographed and the FBI has had to depend on mostly low-quality photos and videos.\u00a0 While hundreds have been arrested, that’s far below the “thousands” who went there will ill intent, and none of the well-known political leaders who enabled and encouraged this attack have been hauled in, nor expelled or even scolded by their political party.\u00a0 Republicans apparently approve of violent attacks on the Capitol and Congress as long as the persons targeted aren’t theirs.\u00a0\u00a0 I can hope that the current people in charge have been working on Capitol security and how to defend Congress and the Capitol *even when* Congress is full of traitors, but understandably *that* bit isn’t being talked about openly.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Because this time it ain’t over until the fat orange traitor gives up or dies.\u00a0 (To be VERY clear:\u00a0 this is not<\/em> an oblique suggestion that he “should” die, but a statement of fact about his character.) \u00a0 Unless he decides it’s not worth it to him to keep trying to raise an army to put him back in the WH,\u00a0 he will remain a source of unrest, sedition, treason, and general nastiness until he croaks.\u00a0 He’s not that old.\u00a0 He could last another 20 years.\u00a0 So we’d better be prepared to deal with him and his deplorable progeny and his main backers for that long.\u00a0 We now know, for sure, that he will keep trying by any and all means, including\u00a0 inciting and encouraging violent attacks on persons and places, no matter their importance to the rest of us, and that he has connections to enough money and enough persons eager to take us down, to be a serious threat.<\/p>\n References<\/strong>: This is not a complete list.<\/p>\n https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2020\/11\/11\/933868828\/shake-up-at-pentagon-puts-trump-loyalists-into-senior-roles<\/p>\n https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CBSNews\/videos\/ted-cruz-campaigns-for-kelly-loeffler-ahead-of-georgia-run-off\/419850809167782\/\u00a0\u00a0 (unfortunately this clip does not contain the comments about marching on Washington, but the comment from the crowd makes it clear such comments were welcome.)<\/p>\n https:\/\/www.adn.com\/opinions\/national-opinions\/2021\/01\/03\/ted-cruz-shows-why-the-gop-isnt-going-back-to-reaganism\/<\/p>\n https:\/\/www.vanityfair.com\/news\/2021\/01\/embedding-with-pentagon-leadership-in-trumps-chaotic-last-week\u00a0\u00a0 (One wishes this reporter had been less naive about Miller.\u00a0 It didn’t take any great military experience to know something nasty was coming up.\u00a0 But more importantly, look at the details Miller gave, and did not give.\u00a0 )<\/p>\n https:\/\/twitter.com\/lukebroadwater\/status\/1354836817925832705\/photo\/1\u00a0\u00a0 This photocopy of Miller’s memo to the DC National Guard appeared 1\/28\/21 when the Dems in Congress questioned DC National Guard commander about the response being late.<\/p>\n https:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/pentagon-tied-d-c-national-085312961.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACKrmXyG1OlSzywkYrtP5fGtYiR3puvbvGe75vgdl9_llIRqC3jEQSU_6moWmbAG9eskkS6YYMMe55iexM3NZy8bjqIVUG9UnvzlzRRk-beDnywDEkjsLC8rNWaKYHzxSCne15oAGMupQqB6eifQ4sfRE8aADcIz-MTEtLj_K5ur<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yes, another political post.\u00a0 You can skip and my feelings won’t be hurt. Reviewing January 6:\u00a0\u00a0 Consider an imaginary President Good.\u00a0 What would a non-traitorous President and staff have done in face of a threatened attack on the Capitol?\u00a0\u00a0 A non-complicit Secretary of Defense, a non-complicit Chief of Staff of the Army?\u00a0 How have such Read More…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[17],"class_list":["post-790","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-life-beyond-writing","tag-life-beyond-writing"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/790"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=790"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/790\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":791,"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/790\/revisions\/791"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=790"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=790"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=790"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}