Climate change right here has *generally* made winters less severe, warmer, but has also shifted the dates of first and last freeze, and first and last 100F days of summer.\u00a0\u00a0 When we moved here, just over 40 years ago, the first cool break came in late August–not much cooler by day, but “crisper,” with a distinct temperature drop at night for a couple of nights before summer heat returned.\u00a0 By mid-September we were into pleasanter “fall” temps (for us), and October was warm (not hot) days and cooler nights.\u00a0 Might even get a light frost in late October–the first real freeze would come by the second week of November.\u00a0 Thanksgiving (4th Thursday of November) was just past peak of color change in the oaks, and cedar elms, with leaves falling by the end of the month, and several freezes past.\u00a0 That last week of November might see the first snow, and sleet, freezing rain, and snow could happen from then on through mid-February, even occasionally to near March.\u00a0 We had light snows (barely covering the dormant short grass) multiple times, and a “big snow” one or twice a year, usually in December or January.\u00a0\u00a0 I remember a big snow in Austin when we lived there, one year, deep enough to put one of our Folbots on the snowy street and slide down a short hill, but never snow in San Antonio that stayed on the ground (where we lived after Austin.)\u00a0 We had seven inches here one year, and while I was in the local EMS, we had to put chains on the ambulance multiple times a winter.<\/p>\n
Now there’s no cool-night spell in August, September is just as hot all through, we’ve had 100F days into October two different years, the first-freeze date may occur in December, trees may turn brown, or lose their leaves from heat and drought, and the oaks don’t come into full color until December .\u00a0\u00a0 There were few trees in San Antonio that actually changed color, but one old red oak on San Pedro used to turn deep red around the middle of December, by which time the oaks here were already leafless.\u00a0\u00a0 Not everything reacts to the change at exactly the same time.\u00a0 Elbow-bush, an early bloomer, reacts to both day-length and temperatures, and live oaks appear to be more day-length activated.\u00a0 And the shortening and overall shift of “winter” temperatures has shifted at the fall end more than the spring end–which led to last year’s dire effect on local trees, when cold more severe than recent winters had produced arrived *after* trees and shrubs had broken their buds and even (for some) opened their first leaves.\u00a0\u00a0 Trees in the fall are not as damaged by an early freeze-up, or a more severe freeze, as by a late one.<\/p>\n
Last year’s long, severe (for us) freeze hit at the worst time.<\/p>\n
So we know that a week-long freeze, by far the worst of last winter, can hit that late, and be that bad.\u00a0 Historical spring here had the winter, cool-season grasses and forbs sprouting in the fall (they still do, but a little later) , growing slowly through the winter, and then bursting into full growth in February and March, with the earliest sometimes putting out flowers in January if there’s a warm spell.\u00a0 These plants can handle a freeze a little early or a little late, and they die back in summer, when the supply of water usually dries up and the heat is too much for them.\u00a0 Some bloom for as little as two weeks, especially in a drought year.\u00a0 But the last freeze used to come in late January or by the third week of February, and usually not the worst freeze, or sustained.\u00a0 The longer freezes (2-5 days below freezing) were in December and January.\u00a0 With the possibility of severe, sustained freezing through February, the growth period for the cool-season plants to attain full size and reproduce is shortened, because the summer-level heat is coming sooner, and the spring rains (for all historical periods, most of it in May) have also shifted.<\/p>\n
Last year’s big winter storm was worse than this for plant and animal life (not counting the human cost, even) and came later than this one.\u00a0 We’re now looking at a week’s forecast of sunny days and cool night, with a frost tonight and a no other freezing temps.\u00a0 But…will it last?\u00a0 The trees have swollen buds…were those buds damaged?\u00a0 Can’t tell yet.\u00a0 Will there be rain to sustain any growth?\u00a0 Really don’t know that one.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile it’s a lovely day outside, the horses are fine, the ground is slowly drying, and I sure hope Rags doesn’t cover himself in mud again.\u00a0\u00a0 I worked on his coat yesterday but didn’t get him clean.\u00a0 If I had a warm water source and a way to tie him up while bathing him, a bath would really help, but those aren’t available, so it’s all elbow-grease and I can’t find the metal curry.\u00a0 I don’t like to use metal curry-combs–except that with hardened clay mud, nothing else will get a crust of it off the critter.\u00a0\u00a0 Can’t consider riding a horse that has lumps of hardened mud where any part of the tack goes.\u00a0 Yesterday I got all the ice behind the old minivan in the carport at the other house broken up and swept off the concrete, meaning I can now move the shavings and horse feed in that car (bought just before the freeze-up) into the barn without risking a fall on the ice.\u00a0 I’d gotten a little of it done before and cleared the sidewalk from the house to the carport.\u00a0\u00a0 The kitchen step is free of ice and dry now, so it’s safe to walk to the barn that short way instead of out the front and around the end of the house.\u00a0\u00a0 I hauled two pecan branches (fallen from a tree in that yard) off to a brushpile by the Old Ditch.\u00a0 Lots more outside work to do today.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Climate change right here has *generally* made winters less severe, warmer, but has also shifted the dates of first and last freeze, and first and last 100F days of summer.\u00a0\u00a0 When we moved here, just over 40 years ago, the first cool break came in late August–not much cooler by day, but “crisper,” with a Read More…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[17],"class_list":["post-1127","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-life-beyond-writing","tag-life-beyond-writing"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1127"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1127"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1127\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1128,"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1127\/revisions\/1128"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1127"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1127"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/elizabethmoon.com\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1127"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}